Leede Insights for 07/23/25

Wealth Management

AltaGas Ltd. (TSX: ALA) and BASF Intertrade AG (Private) have signed a long-term commercial agreement for supply of butane via AltaGas and Royal Vopak's (XAMS: VPK) Ridley Island Energy Export Facility (REEF) commencing in 2027.

• REEF is a large-scale, open access liquefied petroleum gas and bulk liquids terminal with comprehensive rail and marine infrastructure currently under construction on Ridley Island, British Columbia, Canada.

• REEF is expected to be completed by 2026 year-end.

• Agreement Diversifies BASF's Supply and Strengthens their Cracker Feedstock Supply Portfolio

  • The agreement will provide BASF with access to competitive and reliable butane from Western Canada, which will be used mainly as feedstock for BASF's growing production footprint in Asia.

  • This partnership will diversify BASF's cracker feedstock portfolio and strengthen the link between Canada, as one of the world's largest energy producing regions, and Asia , one of the fastest growing demand regions globally.

    • The agreement will provide shorter lead times and reliable shipping deliveries to Asia.

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Canadian National Railway (TSX: CNR) reported results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025.

• Revenue ton miles (RTMs) decreased 1% to 59,215 (millions).

• Revenues of $4,272 million, a decrease of $57 million, or 1%.

• Operating income of $1,638 million, an increase of $80 million, or 5%; operating income was flat on an adjusted basis.

• Operating ratio, defined as operating expenses as a percentage of revenues, of 61.7%, an improvement of 2.3 points; operating ratio improved 0.5 points on an adjusted basis.

• Diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.87, an increase of 7%; EPS increased 2% on an adjusted basis.

• Due to economic uncertainty, attributable to persistent trade and tariff volatility in key economic sectors, CN now expects to deliver adjusted diluted EPS growth in the mid to high single-digit range in 2025 (compared to its January 30, 2025, expectation of 10%-15%).

  • CN continues to plan to invest approximately $3.4 billion in its capital program, net of amounts reimbursed by customers.

Fiera Capital Corporation (TSX: FSZ) results preliminary estimate of AUM of approximately $160.5 billion as at June 30, 2025, compared to $161.6 billion as at March 31, 2025.

Rogers Communications Inc. (TSX: RCI.A/B) results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2025.

• Total service revenue and adjusted EBITDA up 2%.

• Both Wireless service revenue and adjusted EBITDA up 1%.

• Cable service revenue up 1%; Cable adjusted EBITDA up 3%.

• Media revenue up 10% driven by expanded media content and strong NHL playoff audiences on Sportsnet.

• Free cash flow of $925 million, up $260 million or 39% year-over-year.

• Added 61,000 total mobile phone net subscriber additions, including 35,000 postpaid.

• Postpaid churn of 1.00%, down 7 basis points; mobile phone blended ARPU of $55.45.

• Strong retail Internet net additions of 26,000.

• Total service revenue expected to grow by 3% to 5% versus prior outlook of 0% to 3%.

• Adjusted EBITDA unchanged at 0% to 3% reflecting seasonality of MLSE results in the second half of the year versus first half of the year.

• Capex expected to be approximately $3.8 billion versus prior range of $3.8 billion to $4.0 billion

• Free cash flow of $3.0 billion to $3.2 billion unchanged including impact of equity investment transaction.

  

Vox Royalty Corp. (TSX: VOXR) announced a significant development at the producing, gold royalty-linked Binduli North gold project in Western Australia.

• Norton Gold Fields Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of, Zijin Mining Group Co., Ltd. (SHA: 601899), has received regulatory approval for a new Mining Proposal that includes a planned major expansion to processing throughput and infrastructure.

• Vox holds an uncapped A$0.50/tonne production gold royalty interest over the Janet Ivy mining leases M26/446 and M26/833, which cover the majority of the Mining Proposal mine design tonnage results.

• The updated Mining Proposal (Version 7.2) was approved on July 16, 2025, by the Western Australian Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety.

• The Mining Proposal included the following key updates:

  • 40% Throughput Increase Approved: Overall crushing and grinding circuit capacity has been expanded from 5Mtpa to 7Mtpa, enabled by the addition of a new mobile crushing and feeding circuit.

  • Operation and Life of Mine: Tonnes treated per annum expected to be up to 8Mtpa for an approximate life of operation of nine years. Total design volume for the Binduli North Heap Leach Facility is 58.1Mt.

  • Enhanced Processing Flexibility: Low-grade waste material is expected to be crushed and screened at the new mobile facility, with material either stacked on the heap leach facility or transported to the Paddington Mill for processing.

  • Infrastructure Expansion: Approval to develop additional stockpiles, process ponds, and heap leach circuit upgrades to support increased volumes.

Approvals Timeline: According to MINEDEX, the Mining Proposal was submitted to DMIRS on May 1, 2025, and approved approximately ten weeks later on July 16, 2025, highlighting the speed of approval potential for certain Western Australian brownfields expansions.

Speculative Stocks

American Lithium Corp. (TSX-V: LI) announced.

• Due to significant interest, they have requested and received conditional approval from the TSXV to increase the size of their previously announced non-brokered private placement and will now offer up to 34,814,815 units at a price of $0.27 per Unit for aggregate gross proceeds of up to $9,400,000.

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Canfor Corporation (TSX: CFP) announced that their 77%-owned subsidiary, Vida AB, has entered into an agreement to purchase AB Karl Hedin Sågverk from Mattsbo Såg AB and certain minority shareholders for a purchase price of $164 million (1.15 billion Swedish Krona), including working capital of approximately $39 million.

• AB Karl Hedin Sågverk operates three sawmills located in Central Sweden and will add approximately 230 million board feet to Vida's annual production capacity.

• Following completion of this acquisition, Vida will have annual production capacity of approximately 2.1 billion board feet.

• Annual synergies of approximately $15 million are expected to be achieved within three years as a result of this transaction principally related to alignment of marketing programs as well as log procurement and operational practices.

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MAX Power Mining Corp. (CSE: MAXX) following recent financing announcement, they now plan to carry out an additional non-brokered private placement to a strategic investor.

• This concurrent offering is expected to include the issuance of up to 5,681,818 private placement, four-month hold units at a price of $0.22 per Unit.

  • Each Unit will comprise one common share and one share purchase warrant.

  • Each Warrant will allow the holder to purchase one Share at an exercise price of $0.29, valid for 24 months from the issuance date.

• Combined with the previously announced Listed Issuer Financing Exemption (LIFE) offering and hard dollar private placement, they expect to raise total gross proceeds of up to $4.45 million.

• They intend to use the net proceeds of the Offering for exploration of their Natural Hydrogen properties in Saskatchewan and for working capital and general corporate purposes.

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Next Hydrogen Solutions Inc. (TSXV: NXH) is entering into a loan agreement with certain existing directors and officers providing for the advance of an unsecured loan bearing interest at 5% per annum in the principal amount of $530,000.

• The Loan shall mature on the date that is one year from the advance of the Loan.  

  • In conjunction with the advance of the Loan, they will also pay a set-up fee of $20,000 to the Lenders.

• The advance of the Loan is expected to take place on July 23, 2025, immediately prior to the advance of a $1 million loan from an arm’s length commercial lender that is being negotiated between the Company and such lender.

  • There can be no assurances that the Original Loan will be completed as proposed or at all.

• In consideration of the advance of the Loan by the Lenders, they shall, subject to the approval of the TSXV, issue to the Lenders, an aggregate of 214,140 common shares at a deemed price of $0.495 per share as bonus shares, representing approximately 20% of the principal amount of the Loan, subject to adjustment in accordance with the policies of the TSXV.

• In addition, subject to the approval of the TSXV in accordance with the policies of the TSXV, the Loan may be converted into Common Shares at the option of the Company, in whole or in part, on the earlier of the Maturity Date or the closing of an offering of equity securities of the Company.

• Next Hydrogen intends to use the proceeds of the Loan and the Original Loan for working capital and general corporate purposes.

  • The Loan and the Original Loan will assist the Company in bridging its financial position in order to keep its talented team and continue operations while it evaluates longer term financial and strategic solutions.

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 Northstar Gold Corp. (CSE: NSG) announced the signing of a LOI with Novamera Inc. (Private) to deploy their patented Surgical Mining process from surface to mine high-grade copper from Zone 2 at Northstar's historic Cam Copper Mine situated 18 kilometres southeast of Kirkland Lake, Ontario at the Company's 100%-owned Miller Copper-Gold Property.

• Novamera's Surgical Mining technology represents a transformative, data-driven approach to unlocking high-grade, steeply dipping tabular deposits, such as Northstar's Zone 2. Currently being deployed at a gold project in Newfoundland, this method significantly reduces CAPEX, accelerates the time to first production, and minimizes environmental and social impacts.

• The LOI scope of work envisages evaluating the potential for Novamera to deploy their proprietary turnkey Surgical Mining solution to extract a conceptual 116,000 tonnes of Zone 2 material using 93 extraction holes over an estimated period of 31 months.

• Novamera has agreed to help identify financing sources for Surgical Mining Zone 2 at the Cam Copper Project. Preliminary discussions on offtake and financing with government and private sources have already begun.

• Northstar plans to commission a NI43-101 reporting compliant Technical Report and Mineral Resource Estimate, including information regarding the Reasonable Prospects for Eventual Economic Extraction, on the Cam Copper Project.

• Northstar is committed to securing all necessary permits and approvals to advance the Cam Copper Project toward a commercial production decision as efficiently as possible. 

  
  

Novamera's innovative approach-featuring real-time reclamation and minimal water discharge can potentially streamline the regulatory pathway and accelerate project timelines.

Charts of the Day

Economics

Canadian Government Debt 

The federal government may not have a 2025 budget until the fall, but deficits are likely heading higher from what was expected in the 2024 fall update. Announcements on items like defence along with extensive election promises make the direction clear—even if the exact when and where are not.

Meanwhile, what has often been less appreciated is how provincial government balances play into the government spending outlook. Collectively, provinces are about half of combined federal and provincial government program spending. They represent only a quarter of combined deficits expected for 2024-25, but the overall firm increase in future deficits baked into 2025 provincial budgets make it a story worth paying attention to.

We have conservatively marked up our late 2025 and 2026 gross domestic product forecasts, given the strong expected fiscal impulse.

But fiscal policy will remain a wildcard in the economic outlook. Its impact on growth depends on what types of initiatives move forward, when, and how the overall economy evolves. Here’s how it breaks down.

The federal and provincial net fiscal balance is expected to erode over the forecast horizon, especially in the 2025-26 year with a peak $37 billion in additional deficit spending versus fall plans under base assumptions. This would raise the combined 2025-26 deficit from $51 billion to $88 billion.

Our analysis includes budget 2025 projections for all provinces but, for comparability, removes the differing contingencies many provinces added in early spring budgets at the height of U.S. tariff threats. For the feds, base figures include announcements to date, while potential figures incorporate platform measures. Caution is needed on the latter as it’s common for some platform promises to go unpursued, and the fall budget suggests platform in-year spending could be pushed later as well.

Under base (potential) assumptions for the federal deficit, provinces contribute more than 60% (45%) to projected deficit additions over the next two years, and an average 33% (28%) of the total deficit.  In the fall, provinces were expected to represent only 17% of the lower combined deficit. In 2027-28, the combined provincial deficit could be minimal ($4 billion), while the federal deficit could still be in the $50-$60 billion range.

Provincial budgets tend to cover three years ahead, while the feds cover five years, so looking at contributions beyond 2027-28 would give a distorted picture. Moreover, it’s important to keep in mind the trend of recent years – federal deficits have tended to come in higher than previously projected, while on average, provincial deficits have tended to be lower.

Source: RBC Economics 

Where they spend the money will be key 

The extent to which a strong fiscal impulse stimulates the economy depends on the economy’s supply/demand balance and the types of spending measures. Put differently, different types of spending carry different fiscal multipliers.

The Bank of Canada and our own estimates of the economy’s negative output gap are somewhat larger late this year and next compared to expectations at the end of 2024—reflecting U.S. tariff policy and trade uncertainty. In this environment, more public spending could be more positive for growth.

The composition of measures could also be growth positive. Potential federal spending (including platform measures) is weighted strongly to infrastructure. Infrastructure tends to have higher short-term economic multipliers, along with low-income or direct tariff supports, versus corporate or business investment measures, for example.

Provincial initiatives could also be somewhat supportive. The cost of new measures is not apparent across provincial budgets but is available for the three provinces with the largest government outlays—Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia represent about 75% of provincial government expenditures. In 2025-26, new measures are only about a third of the planned increase in deficits in these provinces and only 2% of these (accrual) costs represent infrastructure. However, there are material additional cash outlays of $4.4 billion the next two years under updated capital plans, covering projects like roads, hospitals and schools.

Source: RBC Economics

Markets

Uranium production growth in the USA 

U.S. uranium production capacity ramping, though the restart path won't be smooth – Following the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the global nuclear and uranium markets entered a protracted downturn, forcing numerous mines into standby or closure due to persistently low prices. Prices for uranium fell from ~$70/lb prior to the accident, to a low of $18/lb in December 2016. Markets then began to shift into sustained deficits starting in 2017 driven by a combination of factors including supply discipline (McArthur River's temporary closure, Kazatomprom curtailments) and the rise of financial players (SPUT, Yellowcake) which helped tighten the market leading to more balanced markets. In more recent years, growing demand from China, the rise of AI-led demand and a shift in positive sentiment towards nuclear in the West including strong support in the U.S. under President Trump has led to a rebound in prices promoting many uranium companies to announce restarts of previously shuttered projects.

However, the restart journey has proven challenging. Several projects have faced construction delays, such as Boss Energy's Honeymoon project in Australia, initially scheduled to restart in Q4/23 but was pushed back three quarters to Q2/24.

Based on company disclosures, U.S. uranium production this year could approach 3Mlbs, their highest levels since 2016. Uranium Energy Corp. (UEC) is currently ramping up its Christensen Ranch operations in Wyoming. We are modeling 179klbs of U3O8 production in Fiscal 2025 (period ending July 31st), ramping up to an annualized rate of 1Mlbs of production in FY2026. UEC is also developing its Burke Hollow greenfield operation, which will be processed through the existing Hobson centralized processing plant. We model Burke Hollow ramping to an annualized rate of 1.0Mlbs starting by FY2028. Based on what's been publicly disclosed, and our estimates for UEC, the total brownfield restarts could eventually reach a combined steady state of ~6Mlbs.

Given that U.S. nuclear reactors consumed ~47Mlb of U3O8 in 2024, the incremental uranium supply will continue to fall well short of meeting domestic reactor demand. Westinghouse and utilities' plans for new reactor builds and expansions will further widen this gap. As a result, we anticipate that more uranium brownfield projects are likely to move toward restarts, aiming to bolster energy security under Trump's administration, and we expect this persistent supply-demand imbalance will continue to serve as a long-term driver for uranium price appreciation.

Source: TD Cowen