Leede Insights for 07/18/25

Wealth Management

Diversified Royalty Corp. (TSX: DIV) has acquired the trademarks and certain other intellectual property used by Cheba Hut Franchising, Inc. of Fort Collins, Colorado, adding a ninth royalty stream to DIV’s portfolio.

• Acquisition of Cheba Hut’s worldwide trademark portfolio and certain other intellectual property rights for US$36 million and certain additional consideration.

• Initial annual royalty revenue from Cheba Hut of US$4 million, representing approximately 7% of DIV’s pro-forma adjusted revenue.

• The royalty grows at a fixed rate equal to the greater of 3.5% and the U.S. Consumer Price Index + 1.5% per year.

• Annual dividend on DIV’s common shares to be increased 10% from $0.25 per share to $0.275 per share, effective July 1, 2025.

• DIV’s strong balance sheet enabled it to fund the Transaction without the need to raise equity

Dominion Lending Centres Inc. (TSX: DLCG) announced that Heartwood Financial Group, in which the Corporation holds a 40% equity interest, along with other institutional investors, has secured funding and commenced lending operations.

• Heartwood Financial Group is a non-B20 residential mortgage lender focused on an underserved segment of the Canadian residential housing market.

• Heartwood will operate independently from the Corporation and is led by their CEO and President, Grant Mackenzie and Head of Sales and Operations, Jonathan Bundle, both of whom have extensive experience in the Canadian residential mortgage industry.

• Heartwood's residential mortgage loans will be offered exclusively through DLCG's network of mortgage professionals to borrowers who are best suited to Heartwood's product offering and qualify under their common-sense lending policies.

Dream Industrial REIT (TSX: DIR.UN) has priced a private placement of senior unsecured debentures consisting of $200 million aggregate principal amount of 4.287% Senior Unsecured Debentures, Series G maturing on July 3, 2030.

• In connection with the Offering, the Trust has entered into forward cross-currency interest rate swap arrangements to swap the proceeds of the Offering to Euros to lower the effective fixed interest rate to 3.726%, effective December 22, 2025.

• The Series G Debentures will be issued at a price equal to $1,000 per $1,000 principal amount and bear interest at a rate of 4.287% per annum and will mature on July 3, 2030.

• Interest is payable on the Series G Debentures on January 3 and July 3 of each year, commencing on January 3, 2026. The Series G Debentures will be direct senior unsecured obligations of the Trust and will rank equally and ratably with all other unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness of the Trust, except to the extent prescribed by law.

• The closing of the Offering is expected to take place on July 3, 2025.

• The Series G Debentures are expected to be rated BBB with a Positive Trend by DBRS Limited.

• The Trust intends to use the net proceeds from the Offering to repay existing indebtedness (including to pre-fund the repayment of indebtedness that will mature in December 2025) and for general trust purposes.

Keyera Corp. (TSX: KEY) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire substantially all of Plains' (NASDAQ: PAA) Canadian natural gas liquids business, plus select U.S. assets, for total cash consideration of $5.15 billion, subject to adjustments.

• The Acquisition expands Keyera's position as a leading Canadian energy infrastructure company with a fully connected NGL corridor stretching from western to eastern Canada.

• By bringing these assets under Canadian ownership, the transaction reinforces Canada's economic resilience by strengthening domestic infrastructure and helping to unlock the full potential of Canada's energy future. With core NGL infrastructure in Alberta, the combined platform enables access to high-demand markets through Liquefied Petroleum Gas export access on the West Coast, while also reaching key consumption hubs in eastern Canada and the United States.

• The acquired assets include NGL extraction, fractionation, storage, and rail and truck terminals located across Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.

• The acquired portfolio includes large scale NGL extraction, fractionation, storage, pipelines and terminalling infrastructure located in key hubs such as Empress, Fort Saskatchewan and Sarnia, complementing Keyera's existing operations.

• The purchase price represents an acquisition multiple of approximately 7.8x expected 2025 adjusted EBITDA, or approximately 6.8x including near-term run-rate synergies.

• The transaction is expected to be accretive to distributable cash flow (DCF) per share, delivering mid-teens percentage accretion in the first full year.

• Pro forma, Keyera is expected to have an enterprise value of approximately $19 billion.

  • The combined platform is expected to deliver an approximate 50% increase in fee-based adjusted EBITDA in the first full year following closing, driven primarily by the contribution of the acquired assets, and including near-term synergies.

• Pro forma, approximately 70% of Keyera's realized margin will be generated from fee-for-service business segments, of which approximately 45% will be from take-or-pay contracts, consistent with its current business mix.

• The transaction enhances the sustainability of Keyera's dividend through accretive growth in fee-for-service cash flow and a conservative pro forma payout ratio.

  • They remains committed to their long-term payout ratio target of 50% to 70% of DCF.

• Keyera expects to realize approximately $100 million in highly achievable, near-term run-rate synergies from corporate cost savings and operational efficiencies. Beyond this, the transaction unlocks significant longer-term upside through commercial, logistical, and capital optimization opportunities across the integrated platform.

• The funding plan has been structured to preserve Keyera's strong balance sheet and investment grade credit ratings. Pro forma leverage is expected to remain within Keyera's long-term target range of 2.5 to 3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA.

• Entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters on a bought deal basis, 45,978,000 subscription receipts at a price of $39.15 per Subscription Receipt for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately $1.8 billion.

  • Each Subscription Receipt will entitle the holder thereof, without payment of any additional consideration or further action on the part of the holder, to receive one common share of Keyera upon closing of the Acquisition.

    • In addition, while the Subscription Receipts remain outstanding, holders will be entitled to receive cash payments per Subscription Receipt that are equal to dividends declared by Keyera on each Common Share.

    • Such Dividend Equivalent Payments will have the same record date and payment date as the related Common Share dividends. Dividend Equivalent Payments will be paid first out of any interest on the Escrowed Funds (defined below) and then out of the Escrowed Funds.

  • The Offering is expected to close on or about June 20, 2025.

Sienna Senior Living Inc. (TSX: SIA) has finalized their previously announced acquisition of Hazeldean Gardens Retirement Residence, a 172-suite retirement residence consisting of 129 independent living, 31 assisted living, and 12 memory care units in Stittsville, Ontario, a suburb located in Ottawa’s west end.

• Built in 2018, this high-quality residence is expected to reach stabilized occupancy of 95% within the next 12 months, supported by the rapidly improving supply-demand fundamentals in the Ottawa market.

• The Acquisition is further expected to benefit from significant synergies with the Company’s nearby properties.

• The property was acquired for $85.25 million, including a performance-based payment of $3.75 million, and is subject to an additional performance-based contingent payment of $1.25 million.

• Sienna has financed the full purchase price with a combination of cash on hand and credit facilities and expects the transaction to be immediately accretive to their AFFO per share.

• The Acquisition was completed at a significant discount to replacement cost with an initial investment yield of 6.33% before accounting for internal synergies and is expected to deliver a 6.8% investment yield in the first year following closing.

Whitecap Resources Inc. (TSX: WCP) has priced an offering of $300 million principal amount of 3.761% senior unsecured notes due June 19, 2028.

• The net proceeds will be used to repay existing indebtedness and for general corporate purposes.

• Whitecap's investment grade credit rating was recently upgraded to BBB, with a stable trend, issued by DBRS, Inc., reflecting its improved credit profile.

• The Notes have also been assigned a provisional rating of BBB, with a stable trend, by Morningstar DBRS.

The Notes will be direct, unsecured obligations and will rank equally with all other present and future unsecured and unsubordinated indebtedness.

Speculative Investments

Aurora Cannabis Inc. (TSX: ACB) announced results for the fourth quarter ending March 31, 2025.

• Total net revenue was $90.5 million, as compared to $67.4 million in the prior year period.

  • The 34% increase from the prior year period was mainly due to 48% growth in the global medical cannabis business and 32% growth in the plant propagation business.

• Consolidated adjusted gross margin before fair value adjustments was62% and 50% in the prior year period.

• Adjusted gross profit before FV adjustments was $54.2 million compared to $33.4 million in the prior year period, an increase of 62%.

• Adjusted EBITDA increased 619% to $16.7 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $2.3 million for the prior year period.

• Net loss from continuing operations was $17.2 million compared to a net loss of $20.3 million for the prior year period.

• Fiscal Q1 2026 Expectations:

  • Expect continued strong global cannabis revenue driven by improved performance in Canadian medical, comparable performance in consumer, offset by temporary declines in some of our international markets. Taken together, global cannabis should be slightly lower compared to Q4/25 and is expected to improve in later quarters due to increased distribution and further innovation.

  • Seasonally higher revenues for plant propagation as they complete their peak quarter, in line with historical seasonal trends.

  • Margins to hold strong and we expect positive adjusted EBITDA to continue, with a decline versus Q4/25 due to lower revenue contributions from the higher margin international markets.

  • Free cash flow is projected to remain positive, due to continued strong performance and improved operating cash use.

Kodiak Copper Corp. (TSXV: KDK) has commenced their fully funded 2025 exploration program at their 100% owned MPD copper-gold porphyry project in southern British Columbia.

• The program will include drilling to support resource definition, and field investigations to further assess known mineralized zones as well as priority exploration targets.

• Kodiak is drilling approximately 5,500 metres on three mineralized zones, West, Adit and South.

  • A total of 39 drill holes are proposed.

• Drilling is designed to support the resource estimation on these three mineralized zones, which will be completed in the fall, following receipt of assay results.

  • Together with the soon-to-be-released resource estimate for the first four mineralized zones Gate, Ketchan, Man and Dillard, this will complete the initial resource estimate for the MPD project.

• The drilling will be conducted using one diamond drill rig and one reverse circulation rig and will include the twinning of select historical drill holes as well as improving coverage in areas with lower drill density.

• The 2025 program also includes geologic mapping and prospecting around the resource zones to prioritize areas for further infill and step-out drilling and support modelling.

• Fieldwork will also evaluate select new target areas, including new VRIFY Areas of Interest and priority targets generated by Kodiak's 2024 exploration program.

MAX Power Mining Corp. (CSE: MAXX) has identified a rare rock assemblage in Southern Saskatchewan's basement complex believed to be associated with Western Canada's first known deep subsurface occurrence of Natural Hydrogen.

• This assemblage of Precambrian rocks, including a package of granite, gneiss, metasediments and other intrusive rocks, is part of what is called the Swift Current Anorogenic Province, and it forms a key part of a five-element model (source rock, migration, trap, reservoir, seal) that supports the potential for accumulations of naturally occurring hydrogen.

• MAX Power now has 1.3 million acres (521,000 hectares or 5,200 sq. km) under permit with an additional 5.7 million acres (2.3 million hectares) under application, acquired directly from the Government of Saskatchewan and through a definitive agreement with REV Exploration (TSXV: REVX) as outlined further below.

• MAX Power's permits cover district-scale areas including a newly identified 200-km-long belt bordering an industrial corridor and proposed Hydrogen Hub. Genesis features an interpreted structurally closing drill target based on seismic data acquired by the Company, and over 40 prospect leads for follow-up analysis.

• At "Grasslands" in the southwest part of the province, MAX Power now holds highly strategic ground including an apparent up-dip structure offsetting what the MAX Power geological team believes to be Western Canada's best documented occurrence of Natural Hydrogen associated with basement source rock, identified by the MAX Power team through publicly available well data.

• This apparent up-dip structure, considered by the geological team as being a high priority exploration and compelling potential drill target area, is associated with a major anomaly within a broader package of large anomalies outlined in a 75-km-long, 10-km wide fully permitted corridor.

• Framework for discovery: Detailed geological model and a Prospect Ranking Tool (PRT) have been completed by the Company after months of exhaustive research and are guiding the targeting strategy for MAX Power's first-ever drilling for Natural Hydrogen.

Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp. (TSXV: PGE) announced that Energold Drilling has been retained to commence work at their flagship Stillwater West Ni-PGE-Cu-Co + Au project in Montana, USA, and is currently mobilizing rigs to site.

• The 2025 program will focus on the expansion of drill-defined mid to high-grade polymetallic sulphide mineralization in the most advanced project areas while also testing adjacent priority targets identified in the updated geologic model.

• The upcoming drill campaign follows the successful completion of the property-wide MobileMT magneto-telluric geophysical survey in 2024, which identified multiple multi-kilometer-scale conductive highs and resistivity lows coincident with known mineralization and mineralized horizons.

  • Results have provided a transformative view of the mineralized system across the lower Stillwater Igneous Complex and doubled the extent of Stillwater's 3D geological model from 9.5 kilometers to over 20 kilometers.

Tocvan Ventures Corp. (CSE: TOC) announced the detailed design and scope of work for a pilot mine facility at their 100% controlled Gran Pilar Gold-Silver Project in Sonora, Mexico.

• This milestone builds on the recent exploration success, including high-grade drill hits at Gran Pilar (106.8 meters at 0.6 g/t Au from surface, including 3.1 meters at 19.4 g/t Au), and underscores Tocvan's commitment to advancing the project toward production.

• Pilot Facility Design: Tocvan has outlined a detailed plan for a 50,000-tonne pilot facility at its 100% controlled Gran Pilar Gold-Silver Project in Sonora, Mexico, featuring a 1.76-hectare infrastructure layout with hydrometallurgical processing.

• Strategic Advancement: The 2023 land acquisition expanded Gran Pilar to over 21 km², providing ample space for scalable mine infrastructure.

• Exploration Success and Market Position: Recent high-grade drilling results on the 100% controlled area (e.g., 3.1m at 19.4 g/t Au) underscore Gran Pilar's potential. Positioning Tocvan to capitalize on record-high gold prices, driving shareholder value through ongoing permitting and exploration.

Troilus Gold Corp. (TSX: TLG) has agreed to indicative commercial offtake terms with Aurubis AG (ETR: NDA), a leading global copper smelter headquartered in Hamburg, Germany, for the offtake of copper-gold concentrate expected to be produced from the Company’s Troilus Project in north-central Quebec, Canada.

• The final binding offtake agreement is expected to be executed in connection with the completion of the Project’s broader debt financing package of up to US $700 million, which is being structured by a syndicate of global financial institutions, including Société Générale, KfW IPEX-Bank, and Export Development Canada.

• As outlined in the Company’s May 2024 Feasibility Study, the project is expected to produce an annual average of approximately 135.4 million pounds of copper equivalent or 75,000 WMT of concentrate.

  • The concentrate will contain copper, gold, and silver as payable metals.

Ultra Lithium Inc. (TSXV: ULT) announced that Mr. Juan Orozco, General Manager of Argentinian subsidiary Ultra Argentina S.R.L. has signed an agreement purportedly between Ultra Argentina S.R.L. and Alto Grande Cobre S.A.(Private) to sell the Laguna Verde project to Alto Grande Cobre S.A.

• This unauthorized action was taken without notice and without any legal authorization or validity.

• The terms of the Purported Agreement are:

  • Payment of US $300,000 for 97% of Laguna Verde (paid)

  • Option to purchase 3% of Laguna Verde for US $3 million for 36 months from the date of signing the Purported Agreement.

They reject the Purported Agreement and the purchase and sale transaction contemplated thereby, which is null and void.

Charts of the Day

Wealth

Natural Disasters increasing financial burden 

Wildfires are once again raging in Canada causing disruptions to economic activity and destroying infrastructure in parts of the country. These natural disasters are no longer unusual and are becoming increasingly frequent and financially burdensome.

In 2024, the Insurance Bureau of Canada saw a record $8.5 billion in insured losses stemming from major events including the remnants of Hurricane Debby in Quebec, a significant hailstorm in Calgary, and the Jasper wildfires.

Data shows seven of the top 10 years for total insured losses have occurred in the last decade—highlighting a persistent upward trend. There were 29 disaster incidents in 2016—hitting a peak with the devastating Fort McMurray wildfire creating about $4 billion in damages alone.

The annual average cost of natural disasters soared to $1.5 billion between 2009 and 2019—compared to only $600 million in the previous decade—a clear indication of escalating economic risk.

The repercussions of frequent natural disasters extend well beyond immediate damage repair.

For example, Alberta’s oil industry has experienced significant disruptions due to wildfires, which have led to unplanned shutdowns at critical production facilities. These shutdowns dampen local economies but also send ripples through global oil markets by reducing supply and creating price volatility.

Insurance payouts have also climbed along rising premiums as the number of disasters increase.  Homeowners’ insurance premiums have increased by 5% per year on average over the last two decades—more than twice the 2% average inflation rate. This price pressure has been compounded by surging insured losses from severe weather, which more than doubled from $3.6 billion in 2022 to $8.5 billion in 2024. Higher premiums are placing growing financial burden on households and businesses. 

Canadian Household Debt In April, the total credit liabilities of households rose 0.3% (+$10.1 billion) to reach $3,079.3 billion, decelerating from March (+0.4%). Real estate secured debt, composed of both mortgage debt and home equity lines of credit, grew 0.4% (+$9.9 billion) in April. Household mortgage debt increased 0.4% (+$9.1 billion), accelerating from March (+0.3%). In April, the policy interest rate remained at 2.75%.

Non-mortgage loan debt edged up 0.1% (+$1.0 billion) in April, a slowdown from March (+0.4%). In April, outstanding balances on home equity lines of credit rose 0.5% (+$0.9 billion), accelerating from March (+0.3%). Credit card debt with chartered banks edged down 0.1% (-$0.1 billion) in April, the first decrease since November 2024. In April 2025, the total of the remaining non-mortgage loan debt categories edged up 0.1%. 

Demographics

Canadian population growth minimal in Q1/25

From January 1 to April 1, 2025, the population of Canada increased by 20,107 people (+0.0%) to reach 41,548,787 people. This was the smallest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2020, when the population decreased by 1,232 people (-0.0%) in the wake of border restrictions to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The first quarter of 2025 (+0.0%) marked the sixth consecutive quarter of slower population growth following announcements by the federal government in 2024 that it would lower the levels of both temporary and permanent immigration. This was the second-slowest quarterly growth rate in Canada since comparable records began (first quarter of 1946), behind only the third quarter of 2020 (-0.0%) and tied with the fourth quarter of 2014 (+0.0%).

The growth in the first quarter of 2025 was slower than what is typically seen in a first quarter. For example, from the first quarter of 2001 to the first quarter of 2024, population growth ranged from an increase of 0.1% in 2015 to a gain of 0.6% in 2024, averaging 0.3% growth over this period.

Even with the reductions starting in 2024, international migration accounted for all of the population growth in the first quarter of 2025. This was because natural increase (births minus deaths) was negative (-5,628), meaning that there were more deaths than births. This is consistent with an aging population, a decreasing fertility rate and the higher numbers of deaths that typically occur during the winter months. Natural increase has been negative in every first quarter since 2022.

On April 1, 2025, there were 2,959,825 non-permanent residents in Canada, accounting for 7.1% of the total population. This was down from a peak of 7.4% of the population on October 1, 2024. The number of non-permanent residents has dropped by 61,111 since January 1, 2025.

Canada admitted 104,256 immigrants in the first quarter of 2025. This was the smallest number admitted in a first quarter in four years.