Leede Insights for 07/22/25

Wealth Management

Champion Iron Limited (TSX: CIA) has entered into a definitive framework agreement with Nippon Steel Corporation (TYO: 5401) and Sojitz Corporation (TYO: 2768) pursuant to which the Partners have agreed, subject to the terms and conditions set forth therein, to initially contribute $245 million for an aggregate 49% interest in Kami Iron Mine Partnership, a new entity formed for the ownership and potential development of the Kamistiatusset iron ore project.

• The Framework Agreement is entered into to implement the binding agreement between Champion and the Partners previously announced by the Company in December 2024.

• The Framework Agreement provides that the closing of the transactions set forth therein will occur in two steps.

• The completion of the initial closing of the Transactions is subject to the clearance from the State Administration for Market Regulation of the People's Republic of China, as well as other customary closing conditions.

  • The Initial Closing is expected to occur during the second half of calendar 2025.

  • Upon the Initial Closing, Nippon Steel and Sojitz will make their initial cash contributions to the Partnership in an aggregate amount of $68.6 million, to secure their interests in the Partnership, and are expected to make further contributions on a pro-rata basis for expenses necessary to advance the Kami Project towards a potential interim investment decision (IID) and, ultimately, a potential final investment decision (FID).

  • Such expenses will relate to activities including the advancement of permitting, community engagement and the completion of a DFS for the Kami Project.

  • The DFS is expected to be completed by the end of calendar 2026. Following the Initial Closing, Champion will hold a 51% equity interest in the Partnership and Nippon Steel and Sojitz will hold minority positions of 30% and 19%, respectively.

• The completion of the second closing of the Transactions is subject to the Initial Closing having occurred, the completion of the DFS, the making by Champion and the Partners of a positive IID election to pursue work towards a FID, as well as other customary closing conditions.

  • The Second Closing is expected to occur within several months of the completion of the DFS. Upon the Second Closing, Nippon Steel and Sojitz will make subsequent contributions to the Partnership in the aggregate amount of $176.4 million, to finalize securing their interests in the Partnership, and are expected to make further contributions on a pro-rata basis for expenses necessary to advance the Kami Project towards a potential FID. The Kami Project potential construction period is estimated at 48-months following a positive FID.

• At the Initial Closing, Champion and the Partners will, via their wholly-owned subsidiaries, enter into a partnership agreement with respect to the Partnership.

  • Pursuant to the Partnership Agreement, all costs associated with the Kami Project will be shared by Champion and the Partners on pro-rata basis.

  • Nippon Steel and Sojitz will be entitled to an allocation of the iron ore volumes produced from Kami in accordance with their proportional ownership in the Kami Project.

  • Additionally, the Partnership Agreement will provide for potential future payments to Champion based on the Kami Project's financial performance if and when it operates.

  • Champion will retain operatorship of the Kami Project and will oversee its potential development and future operations. In addition to dilution, exit rights, veto rights and other rights and obligations customary for a transaction of such nature, the Partnership Agreement will also include "put options" and "call options" exercisable under certain conditions by the Partners and by Champion, as applicable, in the event any of those parties makes a negative IID or FID election. In the event those "put options" or "call options" are exercised, Champion will have the obligation to acquire the Partnership interest of the relevant Partner in accordance with the terms of the Partnership Agreement, which will take into account several elements, including the expenditures contributed by the Partners.

• The Partnership will be governed by a management committee comprised of six members, with Champion and each of the Partners nominating two members.

• In recent months, Champion advanced the recently initiated Environmental Impact Statement, as required by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

  • In the near term, they will also continue to engage with local stakeholders, including Indigenous groups, to foster collaborative development and to ensure the Kami Project has a positive impact for the region.

  • Additionally, the Company will pursue discussions with governments at various levels, including seeking potential support stemming from the recent addition of high-purity iron ore to the critical minerals lists of the Government of Canada, as well as those of Newfoundland and Labrador and Québec, and evaluate opportunities to improve the Kami Project's economics.

  • Concurrently, the Partnership will work towards completing the DFS.

Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX: CSH.UN) announced a strategic acquisition to expand their footprint in southwestern Ontario and capitalize on growing demand for high-quality retirement living in the region.

• They have entered into a definitive agreement to purchase a portfolio of six senior housing communities totaling 1,024 suites across London, Waterloo, and Mississauga for a total purchase price of $432 million.

• The portfolio is comprised of six purpose-built seniors' communities, featuring a mix of independent living suites, apartments, and townhomes.

• All residences are private pay and serve independent, low-acuity seniors.

• Riverstone, London (built in 2021 and 2023) – 124 Retirement suites and 135 Seniors Apartments and Townhomes: part of a net-zero campus with extensive solar infrastructure.

• Richmond Woods, London (built in 2007 and 2010) – 130 Retirement suites and 112 Seniors Apartments and Townhomes with rich community amenities.

• Longworth, London (2001) – 126 Retirement suites in highly sought after residential neighbourhood with ample community greenspace.

• Dorchester Terrace , Dorchester (2017) – 123 Retirement suites with an additional 29 Townhomes in development expected to be completed by the vendor in Q4/26.

• Westhill, Waterloo (built in 2012 and 2018) – 117 Retirement suites and 100 Seniors Apartments; offering modern amenities in a growing urban region.

• Erinview, Mississauga (2019) – 57 Retirement suites with potential for an additional 140 suites on excess land, currently leased to a third party.

 Dollarama Inc. (TSX: DOL) announced the closing of their previously announced acquisition of The Reject Shop Limited (ASX: TRS) following receipt of the necessary shareholder, regulatory and court approvals.

• Headquartered in Melbourne, The Reject Shop is Australia's largest discount retailer with a well-located store network of more than 390 locations spanning every Australian state. 

• This strategic acquisition marks Dollarama's entry into the Australian market, building on their proven track record as a leading Canadian value retailer with a growing presence in Latin America through Dollarcity.

Enbridge Inc. (TSX: ENB) has reached a final investment decision on Clear Fork, a 600 MW solar project in Texas.

• Clear Fork will be a utility scale solar facility located near San Antonio, with 600 MW of capacity.

• Construction is underway, and the facility is expected to enter in service during the summer of 2027.

Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ: META), has signed a long-term contract for 100% of the renewable output of the project. Enbridge's estimated project cost is US $0.9 billion, and the project is expected to be accretive to cash flow and earnings per share starting in 2027.

Speculative Stocks

Ballard Power Systems (TSX: BLDP) announced the signing of a new purchase order for the supply of 6.4 MW of fuel cell engines to eCap Marine GmbH, a long-standing expert in emission free power, for deployment on two vessels by Samskip, one of the largest multimodal European operators specializing in short sea, rail, road and barge services.

• The 32 FCwave™-200 kW engines will be integrated into green marine propulsion systems by eCap Marine and power two vessels in Samskip's fleet to decarbonize routes between Norway and the Netherlands.

• The order continues the collaboration with eCap Marine which started in 2021.

• Delivery of the engines is planned for 2025 and 2026.

  
  

Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. (TSX: CRDL) announced database lock for ARCHER, the Phase II multi-national, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial investigating its lead asset, CardiolRx™, on myocardial recovery in patients with acute myocarditis.

• ARCHER is designed to assess the impact of CardiolRx™ on cardiac magnetic resonance imaging parameters that measure heart dysfunction and edema/fibrosis-key measurements used to predict prognosis in myocarditis patients.

• Acute myocarditis is a potentially life-threatening condition affecting the heart muscle (myocardium) and is characterized by chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, rapid or irregular heartbeat (arrhythmias), and light-headedness, and can lead to heart failure or sudden cardiac death.

• There are no FDA-approved drug therapies indicated for the treatment of acute myocarditis.

• Topline results are expected within the next two weeks.

 Chorus Aviation Inc. (TSX: CHR) has entered into an agreement to acquire Elisen & Associates Inc. (Private), a leading provider of aerospace engineering and certification services based in Montreal .

• Founded in 1997 by Stephane Durand and Taif Rahman, Elisen has built a strong reputation for their work on complex engineering projects spanning commercial, business and rotary aircraft modifications, defence projects and sustainable aviation development.

• Elisen's projects include support and development work on the Airbus A220, Bell helicopters and Bombardier, Gulfstream and Lear special mission aircraft, among others. Mr. Durand and Mr. Rahman will continue to lead Elisen following the closing of the transaction.

• The transaction will be paid for using available cash and is not expected to have a material impact on Chorus' consolidated revenue, earnings or balance sheet.

DLP Resources Inc. (TSXV: DLP) announced that drilling of A25-023 on the Aurora porphyry copper-molybdenum-silver deposit in southern Peru, has commenced.

• Greater than 1 billion tonne Inferred Resource.

• The Mineral Resource contains 4,650 million pounds of copper, 1,110 million pounds of molybdenum and 80 million ounces of silver.

• A pit-constrained Inferred Resource of 1,050 Mt grading 0.20% copper, 0.05% molybdenum and 2.4 g/t silver (0.44% CuEq).

• The mineral resource is divided into a copper-rich zone and a molybdenum-rich zone with consistent distribution of mineralisation. Initial studies indicate these zones are laterally continuous within the modelled domains.

• The mineralisation remains open in many directions for further expansion of the mineral resources.

• Continued drilling along extensions of known copper-molybdenum-silver mineralization to the west and southeast will be done during 2025.

  • A drill program of between 6000m to 7000m in seven drillholes will include both extension and infill drilling.

  • The first diamond drillhole A25-023 commenced on July 16 on an azimuth of 215 degrees with an inclination of -70 degrees to a planned depth of 1000m.

  • This hole is planned to both extend and infill mineralization on the southwestern side.

  • Within the next week a second drill hole will commence in the southeast.

• Further to the drilling, a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) is planned to commence in August, 2025 with expected completion date to be December 2025.

Heliostar Metals Ltd. (TSXV: HSTR) announced the restart of mining operations at San Agustin, located in the state of Durango.

• Heliostar presently produces gold from residual leaching at the San Agustin Mine.

• They will increase production by mining the mineral reserve, principally in an area the Company describes as the Corner Area.

• This is a key milestone to unlock increased value from San Agustin.

• Mining operations to restart at the San Agustin Mine in H2/25, with initial production expected in Q4

• Operations analysis supports a post-tax NPV_5% of US $35.25 million, IRR of 548%, CAPEX of US $4.2 million and an output of 45,000 total gold ounces produced at a US$3,000/oz gold price.

• Restart provides confidence for the first significant Heliostar investment into the future of San Agustin, aimed at extending mine life.

• Drilling will commence immediately in H2/25, on oxide expansion targets, followed by sulphide porphyry/breccia exploration.

NGEx Minerals Ltd. (TSX: NGEX) announced plans to spin-out net smelter return royalties on the Lunahuasi and Los Helados Projects by way of a statutory plan of arrangement.

• Create a 1% NSR royalty on the 100% owned Lunahuasi Project, located in San Juan Province Argentina.

• Intends to create a 2% NSR royalty on the Los Helados Project located in Region 3, Chile , with a 1.38% NSR to be allocated to a newly incorporated, wholly-owned subsidiary and a 0.62% NSR to be allocated to Nippon Caserones Resources LLC, a subsidiary of JX Advanced Metals Corporation (TYO: 5016), based on each company's respective pro-rata interest in Los Helados of approximately 69% and 31%.

• Shareholders of NGEx will vote on the Arrangement at a special meeting to be held on September 12, 2025 . The Arrangement will also be subject to Toronto Stock Exchange and court approval.

• If approved, shareholders of NGEx will receive 1/4 of a share of RoyaltyCo for each share of NGEx held as of the Record Date.

• RoyaltyCo intends to apply to list its shares on the TSXV following completion of the Arrangement. Such listing will be subject to it fulfilling all the listing requirements of the TSXV.

New Found Gold Corp. (TSXV: NFG) announced the results of a Preliminary Economic Assessment for the development of the AFZ Core on the 100% owned Queensway Gold Project located near the town of Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada.

• The Study is the first conceptual assessment of the potential economic viability of gold mineralization on the 175,450 hectare Project.

• Solid low-cost production profile from year one via a phased mine plan:

  • Phase 1: Low Initial capital cost of $155 million , builds average annual gold production of 69.3koz oz Au at an AISC of US$1,282 /oz Au in Years 1 to 4 planned to fund Phase 2.

  • Phase 2: Growth capital of $442 million , builds average annual gold production of 172.2koz Au at an AISC of US$1,090 /oz Au in Years 5 to 9 paid back in less than one year.

• Early revenue potential: Initial gold production targeted for 2027 pending regulatory approval.

• Significant leverage to gold price: After-tax NPV _5% increases to $1.45 billion from $743 million and IRR increases to 197% from 56.3% when gold price raised to US$3,300 /oz Au from base case of US$2,500 /oz Au.

• Total production: 1.5 Moz Au over a 15-year LOM at an average total cash cost of US$1,085 /oz Au and an AISC of US$1,256 /oz Au.

• Exploration upside: Significant resource expansion potential, both near-MRE and camp scale over 110 km strike extent.

ProMIS Neurosciences Inc. (Nasdaq: PMN) has raised $0.8 million at-the-market from an existing healthcare focused institutional investor.

• They have entered into a definitive agreement for the issuance and sale of pre-funded warrants to purchase 984,736 common shares, no par value. 

• The Pre-Funded Warrants were sold at a price of $0.8124 per share, which represents the per share offering price for the Common Shares less a $0.0001 per share exercise price for each such Pre-Funded Warrant.

• The Pre-Funded Warrants will be immediately excercisable at a nominal exercise price of $0.0001 per share and may be exercised at any time until the Pre-Funded Warrants are exercised in full.

• The closing of the offering is expected to occur on or about July 24, 2025, subject to the satisfaction of customary closing conditions.

• The gross proceeds to ProMIS are expected to be approximately $0.8 million, before deducting certain offering expenses.

• ProMIS intends to use the net proceeds from the offering towards its further advancement of the clinical development of PMN310, their lead therapeutic candidate, as well as for working capital and other general corporate expenses.

The Westaim Corporation (TSXV: WED) has agreed to provide approximately AU $154 million, subject to reduction, to finance the proposed acquisition by CC Capital and One Investment Management of Insignia Financial Ltd (ASX: IFL), Australia’s leading diversified wealth management group with over AU $330 billion in funds under management and advice.

The Capital Commitment will be paid in cash to the Partnership, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions, including receipt by Westaim of the approval of the Capital Commitment from the TSXV and the Insignia Closing Conditions.

Charts of the Day

Economics

Canadian Business Confidence 

In Q2, firms reported a net deterioration in future sales indicators compared with a year ago. This reflects businesses' expectations of various factors, including generally weak consumer spending and housing activities, soft oil and gas activities stalled by low global oil prices, and a reversal of an export boom earlier this year that was primarily due to tariff front-running.

Capacity issues remained on the backburner. The share of firms reporting challenges with meeting unexpected increases in demand was below the historical average in Q2. The share reporting labour shortages was near a record low.

Given expectations of soft demand, reports of abundant capacity, and still-heightened trade uncertainty, most firms continued to either scale back or pause their investment plans in Q2. Hiring intentions were also subdued, although layoffs were less prevalent and mostly viewed as a last resort.

Wage growth expectations have broadly continued to ease, although the same can't be said about input prices, which were again expected to rise faster over the next 12 months.

Businesses also reported difficulties passing on cost increases to consumers, citing weakness in demand as the main hurdle and margin compressions as a result.

Near-term inflation expectations among businesses eased substantially in June to 2.9% from a recent peak of 3.7% in April. This still partly reflects soft demand expectations and the associated disinflationary effect rather than reduced trade uncertainty.

In contrast, consumers' near-term inflation expectations remained stubbornly high in Q2 at above 4%, as reported in the separate survey of consumer expectations.

Longer-term business inflation expectations, including for 2 to 5 years ahead, remained somewhat well-anchored, mostly within the 2.5% - 3% range but were up slightly from a year ago.

Source: RBC Economics

Markets

Canadian Industrial Space Availability increases 

The Canadian national industrial availability rate rose 40 bps quarter-over-quarter to 5.3% in Q2/25, and is now up 110 bps year-over-year, or 380 bps from the low in Q3/22. The availability rate of 5.3% is at the highest level since Q3/16, although it is in line with the average of 5.6% from 2007 to 2016, which CBRE considers as the ‘historical norm’. Looking forward, CBRE expects availability to trend higher in the near term, as new supply is delivered (more below). Additionally, we understand that space available for sublease has increased, which has exerted pressure on availability, along with new supply.

With the exception of Edmonton, availability rates rose year-over-year in all Canadian markets. The largest increases were recorded in Halifax, Montreal and Toronto, where availability was up 180 bps, 180 bps and 130 bps year-over-year, respectively.

During the quarter, leasing activity was strongest in Calgary with 1.0 million sf of net absorption, driven by new supply that was delivered fully pre-leased. As a result, the availability rate in Calgary dropped 20 bps quarter-over-quarter to 6.1%.  

The vacancy rate, which excludes leased space that is available, is currently 4.1%, up 20 bps sequentially and up 120 bps year-over-year. In the US, the vacancy rate is currently 7.1%, up 30 bps quarter-over-quarter and the highest level since 2014 (Cushman & Wakefield).

According to CBRE, sublease space reached a record of 14.4 million sf in Q2/25, equating to 0.7% of supply, up 10 bps sequentially. Markets with the highest sublease availability include Vancouver and Toronto at 0.9% and 0.8% of total supply, respectively.

Canadian Industrial Construction 

Construction activity currently represents 1.1% of total inventory, unchanged sequentially and slightly below the long-term average of 1.3%. While there was an increase in construction starts in the quarter, it remains below the long-term average. In H2/25, CBRE expects 12.5 million sf of space to be delivered, representing 53% of the construction pipeline. Absent a material increase in construction starts, CBRE expects deliveries to wind down by 2026.

In Q2/25, construction starts were 8.0 million sf (compared to 2.1 million sf in Q1/25), highlighted by Amazon’s pre-leased 3.1 million sf facility in Ottawa. We note that the 8.0 million sf of construction starts compares with the quarterly average of ~8.5 million sf over the past three years.

Though slower pace of new construction is positive for fundamentals, in the near term, CBRE expects availability to rise as projects are delivered, noting that speculative projects account for 64% of the construction pipeline. CBRE expects national availability to rise an additional ~40 bps.

As a result of the new supply, we expect additional pressure on availability in Toronto, where 8.5 million sf of space is under construction (1% of total supply in the market) that is only 25% pre-leased, compared to the national average pre-leasing rate of 47.5%.

In Vancouver, there is 4.0 million sf of projects under construction accounting for 2% of inventory, with approximately 60% pre-leased.

Canadian Industrial rental rates under downward pressure 

Greater availability of industrial space across all Canadian markets surveyed by CBRE has put downward pressure on rental rates. The national average rental rate is down 3.6% over the past year and down 5.4% since the end of 2023. In the US, asking rents are up 4.3% year-over-year, but flat over the past three quarters.

Rentals rates have declined the most in the largest markets (Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal) where a large volume of new supply has been delivered over the past year. Rental rates are down in Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto, by 6.1%, 6.1%, and 5.5% year-over-year, respectively.

Year-over-year, in Halifax and Ottawa, rents have jumped 20.3% and 8.9%, respectively. While availability in Halifax has risen 180 bps year-over-year to 7.7%, smaller format space between 2,000 to 3,000 sf has become increasingly scarce, according to CBRE.

Source: Canaccord Genuity

Wealth

Canadian Long-term Fund and ETF Flow 

Canadian long-term fund flows were somewhat muted in April, but recovered in May, as investors moved on from the market volatility earlier in the year. YTD flow rates are largely in line with the long-term averages for mutual funds and ETFs.

ETFs saw +$16  billion of inflows over the two-month period, while mutual funds were +$2 billion. ETF inflows of $44 billion YTD compare with $23 billion at the same point in 2024.

Mutual funds are +$10 billion YTD compared with -$2.3 billion YTD in 2024.

A comparison of flow rates highlights the strong demand for ETFs. The 20.2% annualized flows rate for ETFs is higher than both the L5Y and L10Y figures of 15.9% and 17.5%, respectively. The annualized YTD flows rate of 1.1% for mutual funds sits above the L5Y average of 0.5%, but below the L10Y average of 1.5%.

Global and International ETFs appear to have benefited the most from North American macroeconomic uncertainty. The 43% YTD annualized flows rate for international equity funds is the highest for any individual segment, and almost double the L5Y average. Notably, this trend has not been mirrored in mutual funds, where flows rates for the same asset class are flat YTD.

Specialty funds (liquid alternatives) have also seen strong investor demand, particularly in mutual funds, where the 39% YTD flows rate is more than twice the L5Y average rate.

Domestic fixed income funds have seen above-average inflows across both ETFs and mutual funds.

Source: TD Cowan